APC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY: BUHARI’S CHANCE IS SLIM?

APC PRIMARY ELECTION: BUHARI’S CHANCE IS SLIM?

The All Progressive Congress (APC) primary election is around the corner and all aspirants are gearing up towards the exercise. Six (6) aspirants had express their intent of participating in the November 29th exercise and the nation watching with patience.

The six (6) aspirants that are participating in the presidential primary election include, former military head of state,incorruptible general and 3 time contestant, general Muhammadu Buhari, former vice president,issue based politician, self acclaimed highest employer of labor in Nigeria and two (2) time contestant, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Speaker of the federal house of representative, the young,intelligent and nationally acceptable Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, the inspirational Governor of Imo state, Philanthropy and people oriented governor, Chief Rochas Owelle Okorocha,  Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the executive and performing governor of Kano state and the Chairman of leadership newspaper, Chief Nda-Isaiah.

Few days ago, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar stated that, it is too late for Apc to resort to consensus candidacy, he maintained that delegate primary election is the best for the party.

According to the former vice president,’’it is too late for the Apc to think of holding a consensus forum for its presidential aspirants but rather, it should conduct a delegate conference where we will fight it out. He stated that, it is one of the tenets of best practice in democracy for candidates to be allowed to test their popularity.

What many people do not know is that, primary election is quit different from the general election.While general Buhari seems to be the most popular Apc presidential aspirant, his history tells us that, he his the least candidate that is unlikely to emerge in a primary election due to his lack of experience.

No wonder his supporters are the champion of  consensus candidacy,hoping that through the consensus arrangement, other aspirants may step down for him to fly the party’s banner unchallenged. 

It would be recalled that, at the declaration of generation Buhari, he still insisted on the consensus arrangement even though other aspirants feel otherwise. According to general Buhari at his declaration,he restated his belief in the efficacy of adopting a consensus arrangement to decide which aspirant should fly the APC flag at the presidential poll. However, the truth remains that, if other candidates didn’t step down for Buhari, hardly would he emerge winner in the primary election.

Atiku Abubakar know this very much and he his using it to his advantage.

While Buhari supporters are pushing for consensus candidacy, Atiku and other aspirants are insisting on holding a primary election and they got their way so far.

It should be noted that, out of all the aspirants jostling for the APC  ticket, general Muhammadu Buhari is the only candidate that has never won any election, both primary and general election.

In 2003, when Buhari got ANPP ticket for the presidencial election, he got it on consensus arrangement and in 2007, it was still on consensus. But in 2011, when current Minister of education and former Kano state governor, Alhaji Ibrahim Shekarau challenged Buhari to the ANPP ticket, where he insisted on contesting the primary election with the retired general, Instead of participating in primary election with Shekarau, Buhari left the party to form the Congress of Progressive Change (CPC) where he got the ticket unchallenged.

This shows that, while Buhari knows he has some supporters in the public ready to die for him, he knew well that he doesn’t have the cordial relationship with party members that could earn him the ticket if primary election should be conducted. 

As we all saw in 2011, Buhari had 12 million votes and Shekarau had less than a million. But if Buhari had contested a primary election with Shekarau, it is very unlikely that he (Buhari) would emerge. This goes to show us that, primary election doesn’t need million delegates, it only need few thousands and the aspirants must earn their vote through all sort of ways.

Now, let’s talk about the chances of each aspirants in the primary election.

1.      From all indications, Atiku Abubakar stand a greater chance of winning the Apc ticket due to his experience. Atiku had won Vice presidential seat with his former boss Obasanjo, he has won governorship election in Yola and he has also won primary elections on few occasions. With his experience and resources, he stand a greater chance to emerge in apc primary election.

Since the date of the primary election was fixed, we have seen how the former vice president had been moving from one state to the other. From meeting the Lagos stake holders to going from one state to the other, Atiku is indeed ready to slug it out. This goes to show that, Atiku Abubakar indeed understand that, personally gaining the trust of the delegates is a key to winning any primary election. He also knows that, most party delegates are mostly comfortable with aspirants they can assess,interact with and reach when they need to. By meeting stakeholders in each states, Atiku is simply making himself available to these important party to primary election and this puts him a good position.  

It is also not a hidden fact that Atiku remains the only issue based politician in Nigeria today. He his the only presidential aspirant that has come forward with his understanding of the challenges facing our dear nation and proffering his own solution to the challenges. Other aspirants both in the ruling PDP and APC are yet to tell Nigerians what they have to offer and how they intend to solve the nations challenges.

2.      Aminu Waziri Tambuwal is another candidate that may likely emerge in the primary election. First, Tambuwal against his former party, PDP emerge  speaker of the federal house of representative in 2011. He defied every known reason and calculation. The nation was surprise and still surprised till date on how he did it. Considering his popularity within his colleague at the federal house of representatives that warrant them to push him out to contest the presidential election, all the members who had been the backbone of the speaker are likely to work for him in their respective states to convince the delegates to support the emergence of Tambuwal in Apc primary election. Although, Tambuwal had never contested beyond the house of representative election, he has indeed spread his name and image across the nation through his people oriented stance on most national issues at the house of representative. Nigerians all knew where he stood during the 2012 fuel subsidy saga. Had the senate president took the same people oriented reasoning, the nation would have been saved from that unnecessary jeopardy. Also, Tambuwal is nationalistic in reasoning, more like the Obama of America, who as a senator, stood for what he believe is best for the nation. Tambuwal had consistently stood on the side of the Nigerian people and if given chance to lead the nation, certainly, he shall be the light needed to bridge the north/south divide and move Nigeria forward.

3.      Musa Kwankwaso is another strong aspirant that stand a chance of winning the Apc primary election. The performing  Kano state governor is a second term governor who had to learn from the mistake he made in 2003 before coming back to win Kano state governorship in 2011 for the second term. However, since emerging governor in 2011, kano state has not remain the same in terms of developmental stride, educational upliftment, citizens welfarism and general life improvement. The impact of the kwankwasiya movement is sweeping kano state and effect is being felt other parts of the nation. Kwankwaso had also won election to the house of representative where he served as the deputy speaker, he his one of the G5 governors that defected from the peoples democratic party (PDP). It is also believed that, some of his governor colleagues are strongly in support of  Kwankwaso to emerge and are ready to work for his emergence. With his experience in previous primaries and elective positions he held, he his a candidate to watch out for in the APC primary election.

4.      The inspirational Rochas Okorocha is a dynamic leader, whose leadership of Imo state can be described as one of a kind. Okorocha who won the Imo governorship election under APGA had to defect to Apc for the good of the nation despite the fact that his former party, apga refused to be part of the apc merger. The one, whose citizens take pride in calling my governor my governor is not just a performing governor who provided free education from primary, secondary to tertiary institution, but rather, he his an inspirational figure whose motivational acts and words propel citizens across the nation to act right in their daily en-devour. Okorocha don’t just perform well, he guide every other citizens to perform well as well. Without any doubt, these 4 candidates have better chance of emerging in APC primary election than general Muhammadu Buhari due to their experience.

5.      General Muhammadu Buhari is the incorruptible leader who had occupy various positions. He was a former military head of state, former governor, former chairman of an important sector and many other positions, but despite his numerous positions, he has managed to be free from any corrupt practices. Although, he has never held any elective position in the past, but he remains the most popular candidate among the populace. His inexperience in primary election place him least on potential winner of the Apc primary election. While many believe he stand a chance to emerge winner in a general election, many others believe he his the easiest to defeat considering how the ruling party is known to use religious and ethnic tag to discredit him.

6.      Chief Nda-Isaiah cannot be ignored in any gathering of important personnel. Although, I cannot say how far this candidate can go due to my limited understanding of his political strength, but one thing is certain, his integrity cannot be put to question. Also, his contribution to the nation through his business cannot be undermined, so we wait to see how much he can pull together in the upcoming primary election.